I’m not going to lie…Day 3 did not go my way with the predictions, but today is a new day with two more games.
Yesterday, Texas A&M jumped on Texas early and cruised to an easy 10-2 win after knocking around Texas starter Lucas Gordon. While I did not predict an A&M victory, I did at least lay out that the path to winning for the Aggies was by jumping on the Longhorn pitching staff and getting deep into their bullpen. Texas A&M did exactly that.
In the night game, Notre Dame’s entire plan seemed to kind of get blown up early when starter Austin Temple was wild early. Temple lasted just four outs as he walked three, and Notre Dame gave him the early hook. It quickly became a patchwork game as the Irish used seven pitchers.
Oklahoma got a rock-solid outing out of Cade Horton as he went six innings, struck out 11 Irish batters and allowed just two runs. The Sooner bullpen kept the Irish bats silent over the last three innings while the offense did enough to get the job done. Sooner shortstop Peyton Graham and center fielder Tanner Tredaway led the offense with four-hit and a three-hit, two-RBI performances respectively as Oklahoma eased their way to a 6-2 victory to be the first team to get two wins in the 2022 College World Series.
Now, here we are on Day 4 of the 2022 College World Series. Auburn takes on #2 Stanford in an elimination game at 1:00 PM CT, and a pair of red-hot teams, Arkansas and Ole Miss square off tonight. Let’s break down the matchups:
Auburn vs. #2 Stanford
This game will pit a pair of teams that are fighting for their seasons. Both teams have had really high highs this postseason but also fairly low lows. Who can bounce back off a rough opening performance from Saturday?
Well, the matchup obviously starts on the mound like a lot of these games do. Auburn will start righty Trace Bright. Bright has been the one constant in the Auburn rotation all season long. His numbers do not exactly jump off the page as he sports a 4-4 record with a 5.23 ERA with 86 strikeouts to 38 walks this season. Opponents are hitting .252 off of him this year. He will be in the mid-90s with a solid breaking ball. The biggest key for bright is locking in his command early. He cannot allow Stanford to get cheap runners on base via the walk. His last outing was one to forget when he failed to get more than just a single out in Corvallis, as well. Can he bounce back today?
Auburn will likely have the bullpen on standby. Everyone will be ready to roll and be available. The bullpen has been really strong recently, and if things get sideways early, they may have to piece together another performance like Game 1 in the Corvallis Super Regional where they went 8.2 innings of one-run baseball to keep the Tigers fighting another day.
Stanford will start Drew Dowd today. Dowd’s stat line looks a decent bit stronger than Bright’s. Dowd is 6-0 on the season with a 4.79 ERA but has just 71 strikeouts to 33 walks in 71.1 innings this year. He will sit in the low-90s with a decent breaking ball. When examining his previous performances, it sticks out that Dowd has not pitched longer than four innings since April 30th, so it is reasonable to assume that Stanford will likely go to their second pitcher early in this one.
Keep an eye on Quinn Mathews as someone Stanford may turn to in this game. Unlike both starters, Mathews’ stat line really pops. He is 9-1 on the season with a 2.62 ERA and has 110 strikeouts in 96.1 innings. Opponents hit just .204 off of him. His one weakness does appear to be walks, having allowed 47 of them this season. Look for Mathews to bridge the gap to the backend of the Stanford bullpen in this game with a solid three-ish innings in the middle of this game.
Stanford’s offense has been really explosive this postseason. They can put up crooked numbers in a hurry, led by soon-to-be first-rounder Brock Jones. I think they will look to attack Bright early and see if his confidence is shaken from a rocky start in the Super Regionals. If they jump on Bright early, things could unravel quickly for Auburn.
On the other side, Auburn’s offense has been sputtering and stagnant recently. It starts with DiCharia and Rambusch. Can both of them get rolling? Can Pierce, Carlson, Moore and co. support the two bats who have been constants all season? Auburn is not afraid to manufacture some runs in a way that Stanford may not.
This game looks like it could pan out to be a bullpen game. Whichever bullpen can silence the other offense will win. Stanford’s offense looks like it might be better primed to scratch a few more runs across in this one, so I will say Stanford gets the job done and keeps their season alive today.
Ole Miss vs. Arkansas
This one pits a pair of really hot, really dangerous teams. I expect there to be a lot of runs.
Hunter Elliott will take the bump for Ole Miss. The freshman has a deceiving 4-3 record with a strong 2.82 ERA with 92 strikeouts in 67 innings this year. He has allowed 30 free passes, so walks will be something to keep an eye on in this one. The lefty shoved against a pair of strong opponents in his last two outings against #6 Miami and #11 Southern Miss. Elliott went a solid 12.1 innings with 18 strikeouts while only allowing a single run on six hits and five walks in those two games.
Arkansas’s Zack Morris will start in this one. Morris has had a really strong year, going 6-0 with 1.89 ERA. He is not a big strike guy as he has just 25 in 33.1 innings and can certainly walk a few batters as he has 17 walks this year. Morris will serve as an “opener” of sorts in this game as he has not pitched more than three innings all year. Arkansas will turn it over to their bullpen early in this one.
Both teams have strong bullpens ready to go for this one. Both teams got terrific outings from their starters in the opener and got length, so the bullpens should be primed and ready to go if needed to be called upon.
Ole Miss has been an explosive group at the plate this postseason. Elko and the boys have put some big numbers on the board. Just look at the Miami Regional when they put a 20-spot on Arizona to put the nail in the coffin of that regional. Jacob Gonzalez is the other power bat to keep an eye on. The shortstop is getting a lot of hype as a potential first overall pick in the 2023 MLB Draft. This offense will come in with a lot of confidence and look to score early and often.
Arkansas is really similar. They have been absolutely putting it on teams all postseason long. They went to Stillwater and won a series of shootouts against Oklahoma State. They just put up 17 on a strong Stanford team. The offense looks as scary as any team in Omaha.
This game has a chance to be the runaway favorite for the most exciting, high-scoring game of this College World Series. It may be back-and-forth the whole way. Ultimately, I trust Arkansas’s bullpen a little more than Ole Miss’s. While it is razor-close, I may also trust Arkansas’s offense a little more as well. Arkansas gets it done tonight in a tight one that may have an extra inning or two.