Welcome to Day 5 of the 2022 College World Series. Yesterday, we saw a couple more upsets in terms of seeding.
First, we had #14 Auburn taking on #2 Stanford. The Cardinal jumped out to a quick 2-0 lead with a run in the first and the second innings, but then, Auburn starter Trace Bright really began to settle in. The fastball started ticking up toward 97 mph and the off-speed pitches started to become more effective. Eventually, he handed the ball over to lefty Tommy Sheehan who gave the Tigers 1.2 innings of scoreless relief work, but when he left, the bases were loaded for Auburn’s close Blake Burkhalter.
Burkhalter hardly seemed to notice as he got the strikeout to end the inning. Burkhalter would end up finishing the game out with two more innings of work and racking a total of five strikeouts in his seven outs recorded. His stuff was nasty with the fastball reaching 98 and the cutter sitting in the low-90s.
On offense, Auburn continued their run of silence at the plate, and the fifth inning looked the part of a back-breaking inning when the Tigers got runners on first and second with no outs only to have a failed sac bunt and a failed rundown play end the threat before any runs had scored.
The Tigers finally broke through in the sixth inning, however, when Bobby Pierce drew a bases-loaded walk and Cole Foster, battling illness, smoke a bases-clearing, three-RBI double off the top of the wall in left-center field. Auburn tacked on a couple of insurance runs in the seventh inning, and that was all she wrote for the Stanford Cardinal. Auburn won 6-2 to stay alive.
Over in the winner’s bracket, Ole Miss and Arkansas squared off in a battle of SEC West foes. The game promised to be high-scoring and a back-and-forth tight battle. Well…Only one of the two sides delivered on that promise.
Ole Miss scored two runs in each of the first three innings, including a mammoth Tim Elko two-run home run in the second inning to left on a pitch that was almost in the left-handed batter’s box. To start, Arkansas somewhat held serve with a three runs shrink the Rebel lead to just three after three innings. From that point on, Ole Miss collapsed the roof on Arkansas. Nine-hole hitter Calvin Harris followed up his two-RBI double in the third with a two-run homer in the fifth. A series of RBI singles and an Elko RBI groundout allowed Ole Miss to stretch its lead to 13-3. Arkansas got a couple in the bottom of the ninth inning, but it was too little too late. The Rebels won 13-5, and truly, the Rebs have gotten hot.
Today, we have a pair of elimination games taking place. The first pits Notre Dame against #5 Texas A&M at 1:00 PM CT. The second will square off Arkansas against #14 Auburn.
Let’s breakdown these matchups today:
Notre Dame vs. #5 Texas A&M
Texas A&M is expected to start Nathan Dettmer on the bump in this game. Dettmer is 5-3 on the season with a 5.40 ERA and 76 strikeouts to 25 walks in 85 innings pitched. Opponents do not seem too afraid of Dettmer. The strikeout numbers are not very high and the opponent’s batting average is .275 off him. Four days ago, we saw Dettmer take the mound against Oklahoma and get crushed all over the yard. He only lasted 1.2 innings and allowed seven runs on four hits and three walks. In order for A&M to win today, Dettmer must be better than we already saw in Omaha.
Notre Dame likely will turn this game into a bullpen game. There will be a ton of pitchers for both sides probably, but especially on the Notre Dame side. With the high-octane A&M offense, this game could get long, so be ready to buckle in for a few, maybe several, hours.
So the Aggies may have the better offense. They may be able to manufacture more runs, but their defense is really bad. They are the far-and-away runaway leaders in errors of the NCAA Tournament. On the other side, Notre Dame’s defense has been pretty sparkling, especially in comparison to the Aggies. Will that make a difference? I am not so sure.
I think the Aggie offense has been really good all year. The wind changed today. It will be blowing out to dead center. I expect Texas A&M to capitalize on that and score a lot of runs and live to fight another day.
Arkansas vs. #14 Auburn
Arkansas is going to be licking its wounds coming off a thorough thrashing by Ole Miss. Will McEntire will take the ball. McEntire is just 1-2 on the season with a strong 2.81 ERA. He has 40 strikeouts to 22 walks in 41.2 innings. Opponents hit just .209 off McEntire. Of late, McEntire has been pretty hit or miss on the mound. He was phenomenal in his last outing in Chapel Hill, shutting down UNC’s lineup over 5.2 innings of scoreless baseball, but he has outings like his 2.1-inning, three-run outing against Alabama in the SEC Tournament that is not as rock-solid. It is worth noting that Arkansas closer Brady Tygart is lurking in the bullpen and has not yet been unleashed in Omaha. That could be something to keep an eye on as this game moves into the latter stages.
Mason Barnett will start for Auburn today. He is 3-2 on the season with a 3.98 ERA. He has 79 strikeouts to 31 walks in just 61 innings. The strikeout numbers should tell you that his stuff is nasty on the mound. He will be in the mid-to-upper 90s and a hammer breaking ball that can put any hitter away. Opponents are hitting .250 off of him this year. Ever since taking a role in the Auburn rotation, Barnett has taken his game to a different level. Three of his last four outings have been solid performances. Even in his last outing in Corvallis, Barnett did not have his best stuff but still battled through 4.1 innings of one-run baseball to allow Auburn the chance to keep its season rolling. I expect nothing less today out of the junior righty.
Both of these lineups are dangerous, but I cannot help but feel that they are all of a sudden trending in opposite directions. Arkansas was red-hot and scoring in bunches going into last night when they were muzzled by the Ole Miss pitching staff. Auburn, on the other hand, was ice cold and quiet until they roared alive late and started putting crooked numbers on the board late against Stanford.
As a result, I think Auburn is in a good spot to sneak a win against Arkansas. I think Auburn is coming in feeling good about itself, while Arkansas may be feeling the opposite. I am making this call just on feel about the trend of both teams. Give me the Tigers in a close one.